VU Data Lab: Elimination Final

With the 2022 AFL finals commencing this evening, Victoria University and Western Bulldog’s analyst Sam McIntosh, PhD has put together a summary of the Western Bulldogs season so far, as well as some insight into what the stats are saying for their final’s chances.

For those nostalgic Western Bulldogs supporters out there, it feels a bit reminiscent that at this point the most likely journey towards the 2022 Premiership Cup will look very similar to that of 2016. The finals series is kicking off with another away elimination final trip to Perth, with a win sealing a semi-final at the MCG. If the Dogs are successful again, there’s a potential preliminary final in Sydney awaiting, before returning to the MCG for the final weekend in September.

Season so far

Following on from last season, we’ve seen the Bulldogs again base their game around elite ball use in general play and excelling at winning the ball from stoppages. Bailey Dale has again been the #1 ranked player in the league for the cumulative impact which his ball use has in general play. Alongside him is another four Bulldogs who all finished the home-and-away season rated within the top 20 players.

• Marcus Bontempelli
• Ed Richards
• Caleb Daniel
• Jack Macrae

From stoppages, Western Bulldogs have arguably been better than they were in 2021, recording a total of 182 more clearances than their opponents in 2022 (60 more than in 2021, and well over double any other team in 2022, with the second highest team being Carlton who’ve won 76 more clearances than their opponents). Given the combined effect of having a multitude of elite ball users and taking possession of the ball at stoppages more often than their opponents, it unsurprising that the Western Bulldogs are the #1 team at creating opportunities to score from stoppages. In the figures below we can see the cumulative ball use ratings, outlining where the five Bulldogs players rank compared the other top 20 ball users, as well as how each of the final’s teams have scored from stoppage clearances.

Players on the rise

After highlighting him as one of Western Bulldog’s most improved players this year in our mid-season review, Ed Richards has continued to establish himself as a rebounding defender and is still yet to put together a performance that doesn’t reach his expected range. As we highlighted above, Ed’s ball use has been outstanding this year, and he’s coming into the final series off an extended string of good performances (including Round 21 against Fremantle).

Ryan Gardner has also put together an exceptional season, and was a noticeable out last time the Western Bulldogs shaped up against Fremantle. His performances improved across the first half of the season, and he’s managed to maintain his impact on matches throughout the remainder of the home-and-away season.

A look at this week's elimination final

Both Western Bulldogs and Fremantle come into this week’s elimination final after having indifferent seasons. Both teams were at the peak of their powers in the few weeks surrounding their bye, however, have come back to the pack a little with difficult fixtures in the back end of the season. This week’s elimination final is likely to be dictated by how each team performs in their forward and defensive 50s. This year Fremantle’s play style has been very heavily focussed on defence, ball security and limiting opposition scoring opportunities, whereas the Bulldogs wins have primarily come from overwhelming their opposition with inside 50 chances. The ‘Offensive Opportunities’ figure below shows that the Bulldogs lead the league in transitioning the ball inside 50, and sit roughly mid-table when it comes to converting a score from these opportunities (well above Fremantle in both). One the other hand, the ‘Denying Opposition Opportunities’ figure indicates that Fremantle have been one of the better teams at restricting their opposition from transitioning forward in general play, and have been the #1 team at denying oppositions from scoring once inside 50.

In round 23 against Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs recorded their highest forward 50 pressure rating for the season. This increase in pressure led to the Bulldogs maintaining the ball inside their forward 50 for longer than any other game this year, and created additional burden on Hawthorn’s ability to rebound, leading to repeat entries. An attempt to repeat these levels of pressure will be important in overcoming Fremantle’s defensive structure.